Would acknowledging past prevent new crimes?



Published by Today's Zaman, 27 January 2012

Armenia’s Foreign Minister Eduard Nalbandian commended the French attempts to criminalize denial that the events of 1915 constituted genocide by saying “it is a very important mechanism to prevent new crimes against humanity.”

This idea is commonly accepted in academic and public circles as plain truth. Some go even further, saying that if Turkey had acknowledged the events of 1915 as genocide earlier on, the Holocaust would not have happened. Hitler is said to have been inspired by the lack of attention shown to the fate of the Armenians as he hatched plans to exterminate the Jews.

Sadly, just as the shallow popular psychology books that argue facing your own past will always heal you is an argument that is not grounded in reality, neither is the argument that officially acknowledging historical atrocities will prevent new ones. It is only an emotive discourse.
First of all, world history is full of examples of how historical grievances and incidents have been used to justify war, violence and political domination. For example, Rwandan Hutus were mindful of the suffering they faced under Tutsis and this was used as a justification for the killing of Tutsis during what is called the Rwandan genocide. Serb nationalists regularly referred to their defeat to Ottoman forces at the Battle of Kosovo in 1389 to reassure themselves that the time to set the record straight had come, as they marched on, killing Bosnian Muslims.

That is why yesterday’s victims can make the best of today’s perpetrators. As soon as a particular group internalizes the feeling of being wronged, it is vulnerable to suspending all further moral considerations or responsibilities and seeing itself as a legitimate user of power that can demand more significance and rights than others. See the crimes the US has committed following 9/11.

Secondly, even though the 20th century has left a legacy of memorializations of wars and genocides, they still do happen. World War I memorial sites had “never again” and “lest we forget” inscriptions on them, yet far from preventing further war, grievances from World War I were influential factors in the lead-up to World War II. So now, World War II memorial sites stand next to those of previous wars with the same inscriptions. Similarly, even though the Holocaust became a symbol of racial hatred and violence, genocides and racial violence continued and continue to happen today.

Thirdly, there is an extremely strong case to be made for letting go of the past. On the personal level, we know that dwelling too much on the past takes away our capacity to live in the present and achieve a better future. Nietzsche refers to this as plastic energy, meaning the capacity we have to remold ourselves, and warns that an obsession with the past will stop progress. In fact, individuals and countries regularly employ collective forgetting and amnesia to be able to start afresh and move on. This is all the more so in contexts of transitional justice, where countries are only able to stop conflict and coordinate a transition into peace by passing amnesty and amnesia laws.

The past does not exist. Its fragments are evoked, constructed and represented by us in the present tense. It is a neutral bag, full of bits and pieces that can be utilized for whatever narrative contemporary actors need for their purposes. Therefore, we have every right to be skeptical of any attempt to officially endorse and enforce a version of the past.

Saying this is not synonymous with promoting an “eternal sunshine of the spotless mind,” as Alexander Pope put it. Just as one can be naive about facing the past, one can also be naive about the importance of letting go of the past.

The challenge is not simply remembering or enshrining the past today but acknowledging it in the right way in order to enable a better future. That is where the French attempt to criminalize discussions over 1915 has gone wrong. It is stifling any chance of the debate and discussion much needed for Turks and Armenians to hear each other and process the past together.

Loving Prophetic Voices of the Past but Hating Those of Today



Published on Huffington Post UK, 19 January 2012
This week, Martin Luther King Jr was remembered with great love and affection not only in the US but all around the world. His legacy continues to inspire and leads us to believe that we human beings can aspire to and achieve higher moral values and practice them in our societies to better the world.
Every generation needs its prophetic voices to reflect back to itself where it goes astray and what it needs to do to regain what makes us different from animals only guided by their evolutionary instincts to sustain their lives. In other words, being human is a process and cannot be taken for granted. We have to fight to remain human in the face of strong impulses to dominate, exclude, consume and posses. Thus, remembering the prophets of old days is integral for our present as well as the future.
However, something more sinister might be at play in our memorialization of long dead prophets and the issues they fought to change. We know from the experiences of truth and reconciliation commissions and mundane politics that every new regime will seek to hang out all of the dirty laundry of the previous ones to establish their own legitimacy. By dwelling on how the previous governments and generations got it wrong, political and social actors are able to tame the past and seize a powerful moral tool that can be used as a shield against anyone suggesting that the same problems old prophets fought against still continue.
Take the issues Martin Luther King Jr fought against. It is true that the African American community is not facing blatant racism it faced when he was alive. Yet, even the fact that Barack Obama received more death threats than any other previous US President as soon as he took office signals to the deep undercurrents that still exist.
The core element of racism - exclusion of a particular group on assumed reasons of difference - always remains within all of us and our societies. It only changes its properties and objects, but mechanisms of exclusion are very much alive and kicking. Today, it shows itself not so much on biological qualities of skin colour, but in properties of belonging. You are either with 'us' or with 'them'. You are either 'in' or 'out'. 'Your' life and rights can be overridden if it is not in 'our' interest. 'You' can be denied to live among 'us', who have unlimited access to roam around the world including 'your' country.
In other words, the reason why the prophets of Old Testament protested by walking around naked, covering themselves in ashes, preaching a message of repentance from injustice and exclusion of the weak and vulnerable is still valid today as it was then.
It is easy to love the long dead prophets and seek to affirm moral decency based up on social ills we think to be long gone. But, it is extremely hard to love today's prophets who speak up for today's ills. They disturb, shame and challenge us by their mere presence.
That is why we prefer hearing stories of abusive priests, corrupt politicians, incompetent NGOs and selfish celebrities, rather than saints and selfless people out there who are not part of the rat race we find ourselves in. They make us feel dirty and judged, even though the last thing on their minds are us but the suffering, excluded and needy. Thus, we remain cynical of anyone with any claim of morality, but not because we do not believe in morality. In fact, we demand people to treat us morally. Yet, the moral truth that we see in the lives of prophetic voices of today disrupt our self image. That is why we only wholeheartedly and en masse celebrate the dead, not the living.
Voices such as Martin Luther King Jr, Dietrich Bonhoeffer and Nelson Mandela or many others who stood boldly when their countries were being carried away with poisonous currents are not and cannot be reduced to history lessons, cold stone memorials, school trips and quick quotes to remove our own guilt and responsibility. They are messages of repentance, reminding all of us to look deep into our own hearts, not some distant future. They demand action, change and courage from us, today, here and now.

Iran, Armenia and Armenians


Published by the Commentator, 10 January 2012..  To read the article in Russian; Иран, армяне и Армения

The news that the Iranian Interior Minister Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar will be visiting Armenia mid-January might come as a surprise to some. Yet, Iran has always seen its Armenian population as well as its links with Armenia as an important asset.
Armenians are the most favoured and relatively privileged of all non-Muslim communities in Iran today. It is tricky to establish the exact number of ethno-religious minorities in the country since the official numbers are politically shaped and minority communities guard such details and often are not clear themselves.
However, various sources estimate that there are around 300,000 Baha'is, 110,000 Armenian Orthodox, 13,000Asyrian, Greek and Armenian Catholics as well as 10,000 Greek and Assyrian Orthodox Christians. In addition, there are somewhere from 10,000 to 20,000 Protestants and Evangelicals, most of whom are first generation Muslim converts to Christian faith. While Iran regularly speaks of a sizeable Jewish community of more than 10,000, in actuality, their numbers are now thought to be in hundreds and they live their lives in shadows.
The largest non-Muslim community in the country, Baha'is, face an aggressive policy of extinction. Iran denies them every human right imaginable from denial of education and economic opportunities to denial of holding religious services and regularly detains and imprisons community leaders and activists on fatal charges of espionage and national security.
Similarly, Muslim-background Christians are regularly detained and threatened with the death penalty and often released after paying hefty bails and turning over the deeds of their houses.
In contrast, Armenians are allowed to live relatively untouched. They have full freedom of worship and can consume alcohol and hold social events in designated clubs. They have schools for their children and by and large have not been the victims of the brutal regime. There are two seats reserved for Armenians at the Iranian Parliament.
However, just because Armenians do not suffer the same level of abuse as other religious minorities does not mean that their lives are a sunny walk in the park.
Throughout the years, Armenian clubs have been raided, Armenian businessmen and families have been threatened by police and members of Basij seeking to get extortionate bribes. In Armenian schools, they are not allowed to teach Armenian culture, religion or language at adequate levels and schools include Muslim directors and staff members.
Most disturbingly, the text books that are used in the religious education classes are written by the Iranian ministry of education and rather than enabling Armenian children learn about their faith, they are coerced into Islamic thought by text books citing the Qur'an and Prophet Muhammed without ever stating what the Holy Book or who the Prophet that is being cited are.
Ironically, Ahmedinejad has allowed more hours of Armenian language teaching and granted significant state funds to enable Iranian Armenians to partake in international cultural exchanges and especially with Armenia.
But receiving Ahmedinejad's blessings have a price tag, of course. Helping Armenians is seen as a public diplomacy tool which enables a good word about his regime in Latin America, France and US. Ahmedinejad regularly uses the state of their welfare to bolster his image as a benevolent and tolerant leader.
Good treatment of Armenians in Iran also opens the door for economic engagement with the diaspora’s homeland. As sanctions hit Iran more and more, it desperately needs partners that can be a market for Iranian products but most importantly can supply Iran with needed goods and be a middle-man for some not-so-straightforward financial transactions.
Armenia too, suffering from the blockade by Azerbaijan and Turkey, needs a way out of the over dependence to the Georgian border and the taxes and vulnerabilities that come with it.
So when the Iranian minister arrives in Yerevan, he will be cautiously but warmly welcomed. What is at stake for Armenians is the vulnerable lives of more than 100,000 compatriots living in the country and the desperate needs of the Armenian economy.
While Iran loves to play the card of the strong and mighty benefactor who should not be crossed. In fact, it is vulnerable and desperate for any friendship it can have.

Honouring Turkish Schindlers of 1915

Picture; Industrialist Mehmet Efendi, A Turkish businessman who risked his life to save his Armenian friends. Article published on Huffington Post UK blog, 3 January 2012

In almost every memorial site dedicated to the victims of the Holocaust, one finds sections honoring non-Jews who saved Jews from extermination. They are referred to as 'righteous among the nations' or righteous gentiles. The movie Schiendler's List was one account of such a story. A new book, the Lion's Shadow, recounts the story of another righteous gentile, Abdol-Hossein Sardari, an Iranian Muslim diplomat who saved thousands of Jews from a certain death.

Honouring heroism of non-Jews universalises the memory of the Holocaust and ensures that we do not simply see horrific events of WWII as an episode of evil Germans killing Jews. It helps us locate it within its historical setting and draw lessons for the future; lessons of how a continent can get carried away and lead millions of people to their deaths and how even in the most coercive settings, we human beings can rise up to a higher moral level.

Sadly, I have never seen any such section honouring Turks who risked their lives to save their Armenian friends and neighbors in all of the Armenian memorial sites I have seen. There were, however, sections honouring non-Armenians who have helped the Armenian cause in raising the issue of 1915 massacres. Only a handful of Armenian historians mention them, often in passing. Yet, we do see their traces in almost all biographies written by surviving Armenians.
Whenever I raised this with various Armenian activists and academics, I got two main responses. The most common one was relativization; well, yes, there were very few Turks who helped Armenians, but most of them did so to make money or even adopt the young kids so as to use them as free labor. Thus, their acts or their presence in the complex web of history was placed back into the neat and clear category of the eternal perpetrator Turk.

The second most common one was refusal; as long as Turks refuse to acknowledge what happened in 1915 as genocide, no one should ask Armenians to honour or sing praises of Turks; to do so will be glorifying the Turks and victimizing the Armenians further. Sadly, the same refusal to break down the a-historical category of the 'evil' Turk we see in relativization is also at play in refusal, albeit in a morally coated discourse.

Both of these responses are fundamentally flawed. First of all, the greatest portion of Armenians who survived the massacres and deportations did so with the help of people around them, may they be Turks or Kurds . And yes, while surviving children and woman might have been remarried or as it is with every orphan or poor kid in rural life worked as part of being offered shelter, there were many who simply had no motivation other than the desire to protect innocent people.

Secondly, at the pure moral level, it is a complete moral failure not being able to thank or respect or honour those who chose to do right thing and took serious personal risks. To say that one will do the morally right thing if only when someone else do a morally right thing completely undermines and destroys the morality it demands to start with. An act is moral and worthy on its own, not because another act is required in return.

Thirdly, honouring such Turks does not take away or diminish the depth and scope of hundreds of thousands Armenians who perished during the turbulent collapse of an empire. Far from it; it enables their suffering to be part of a common human history that can be shared and mourned for and remembered by not only Armenians today, but also the entire world, including the Turks. This makes sure that history does not remain the collective memory of a particular group in conflict with another's, but an episode, which we can co-process and own.

Currently the Armenian activists seem more resolved to communicate their hurts and pasts to everyone in the world but the Turkish public. Yet, they don't realize that unless the Turkish public sees their pain and urges the Turkish government to act, no Turkish government can ever address 1915 and no amount of legislations passed at world parliaments will bring us a step closer to absolution and acknowledgement. Their misguided efforts find their mimesis in over zealous Turkish activists, who see demonizaton and judgment of an entire group of people in calls for facing the past and vehemently refuse to accept it.

It is high time to bring the conversation to Anatolia, not to Washington DC or Paris, and find ways to make the past an integral part of the story of this land. And in that process, honoring Turks who saved Armenians would be a major break through. It will depolarise an extremely intense conversation and help us to discover the deep common humanity we all share.

Please do visit the small blog where I gather such stories and do share if you know or read other ones; http://www.projectcommonhumanity.net

UK and Turkey: A New Alternative European Alliance?

Last week's fall out between the UK and the EU caused divided opinions about the EU in Britain, as well as the deep political divides between other EU countries to surface once again. While neither Britain nor the EU is in a position to give up on the other, the UK will be looking to strengthen bilateral relations with strategic countries to ensure its economic and foreign policy interests in the likelihood of growing tensions with the EU machinery. At that point, recent investments made to enhance ties with Turkey will be proven to be much more important than previously thought.
At the most superficial level, growing economic relations between Turkey and the UK will be providing a hungry market for British investors and products. The signs of the lucrative Turkish market being noticed by British investors become clear when one considers that the trade volume between the two countries went from a humble $141 million in 2003 to $1.3 billion in 2008 and a whooping $11 billion in 2010! By 2015, we will see a doubling of the latest figures. As the Turkish economy continues to grow along with its consumer confidence and as the Turkish government remains keen to attract foreign direct investment to the country, Turkey is going to be an important trade partner at a time when the European market is facing major challenges.
At a deeper level, the fact that the UK has always been a keen supporter of Turkish accession into the EU and that the two countries are in agreement on almost all of the issues surrounding the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) means that the UK enjoys a good rapport with the country. Good relations with Turkey mean that the UK has a partner to enter places it cannot do on its own and can secure diplomatic and economic footholds in areas from which it has previously been excluded. Turkish engagement in MENA, the Balkans, Central Asia, and now increasingly in Africa, is providing opportunities for British diplomats and companies to work alongside and through Turkey and Turkish firms. This is especially important given that the UK's influence in those regions is limited and even, in some cases, absent.
However, a new level can be added to these obvious areas of vital importance for good relations between the two countries. Both are at the peripheries of the EU power, even though one is just outside and the other just inside of it. The centre stage is obviously dominated by the German and French alliance with increasing signs of cracks that the one with the bigger economic power (i.e. Germany) will not be playing the role of equal partner for much longer. The Franco-German partnership has tended to see the UK's stance as a nuisance all along. It is no surprise that the same alliance has been key in blocking Turkish accession into the EU, not least by quietly encouraging Cyprus to seek a vindication against Turkey at every possible turn.
Given that similar power games seek to push both Turkey and UK to the edges of Europe, and that closer economic and diplomatic relations between them will provide UK openings in MENA of a kind that the EU does not currently have; and given that Turkey is ready to give up on EU accession efforts but not on bilateral links with Europe generally; and given that the UK is seen increasingly as a trusted ally, we should expect to see a new power block emerging on the horizon. A strengthened and harmonious relationship between Turkey and the UK will have substantial economic and political muscle to play a major role in the EU's future, or even its survival, in the 21st century.
While the weaker coalition partner Nick Clegg believes that being at a more central point in EU gives Britain a larger influence and maintains the diplomatic and economic attractiveness of the UK for the US, he does not need to panic! The EU's political and economic ills -- to say nothing of its total lack of foreign policy vision and influence, and its tepid support for many US interests in its neighbourhood -- meant that a long time ago US administrations stopped seeing the EU as a key arena in which to assert influence.
On the contrary, Turkey is seen as sine qua non by the US for all of its regional goals. So, a closer link between the UK and Turkey, especially at a time when Euro-scepticism is at its highest globally, will not only have the blessing of the US but place the UK at a truly advantageous place ahead of most of the EU countries. It will also provide the many EU members with an important counterweight to the unhealthy German and French dominance.
Ten years ago, such prognostications might have seemed almost a joke, but it seems that an Anglo-Turkish alliance might be the best thing that happened to Europe in a long time and could be the key to ensure that the crucial vision behind the founding of the EU is actualised in the 21st century.

A Postmodern Turkey?

Published by Today's Zaman, 9 December 2011 



For at least eight years now, Turkey has been likened to either countries with strong inclinations to theopolitics like Iran, or authoritarian ones, like Russia. While the never-ending longing to find a teleological destination for Turkey keeps producing new panic attacks, few analysts have been paying attention to the very “Western” trends that have been changing Turkish society and politics for the past 15 years.

The change began with the reforms under Turgut Özal, but lost political momentum until the creation of the Justice and Development Party (AK Party). Yet, the effects of increasingly open markets, integration into international structures and flourishing independent media on the depoliticized post-1980 generations continued as an undercurrent. Political apathy, mistrust in and frustration with the political elite and their power games showed itself strongly in the 2002 elections. The Turkish public was demanding a new type of politics and society.

The strong vision of a homogenized nation-state began to weaken its hold. Appetite for military involvement in politics declined sharply. The cultural and economic elite of the three leading cities increasingly lost their hegemony. Religious beliefs and personal quests for meaning became trendy, but in potluck fashion, depending on the desired worldview and needs of the individual. Questions on previously clear-cut identity definitions, such as Turkishness, became points of debate. Cracks in carefully constructed national myths and histories began to appear. Melancholy and a romantic view of the good old days of the “founding fathers” descended like fog. Political activism turned to limited and shallow articulations of sensitivity expressed via changing Facebook profile pictures and leaving “bold” comments on newspaper websites.

Turkish architecture, too, started changing. Housing blocks broke with well-established traditional construction, and design and style were increasingly put first. Advertisers began selling “lifestyles” in “exclusive” compounds. Construction firms are now competing to build eco-friendly buildings. “Holistic” food products, yoga lessons and mild forms of East Asian philosophies are popular.

The days of valuing house decorations or cultural products to the level they are not Turkish are over. Contemporary designs that blend Anatolian colors and styles, as well as TV soap operas that place a rural way of life into contemporary İstanbul settings are meeting the deepening need for “authenticity” for alienated and rootless urban Turks. Thus, Turkish rock, rap and high-brow artists are using previously shunned Turkish beats and learning to cherish the rich heritage of the country. Rather than all-inclusive hotels dominated by hungry tourists, an increasing number of boutique hotels in hidden corners of the country provide ample satisfaction of the authentic experience and the pleasure of finding something not consumed by the mass market.

The careful reader, especially from North America and Europe, will smile upon hearing all this, as this description of Turkey may sound just like “home.” All of these are indeed signs of postmodernity. Postmodernity is a sociopolitical and cultural reality, not to be confused with postmodernism as a philosophical school of thought with a strong anti-realist tone. Derrida or Foucault or even consumption of an Andy Warhol print art are of no value in decoding footprints of postmodernity in today’s Turkey.

In line with the nature of postmodernity, unlike modernism and modernity, which were brought to Turkey through a small European educated or influenced elite and enforced top to bottom, postmodernity is an incoherent grassroots affair. This is alien to the current gatekeepers of Turkish intelligentsia and their comrade publishers, all of whom share the ever so melancholic memories of the days when the words “left” and “right” mattered, and where citing Marx was a sign of intellectual sophistication.

While one does see clinical cases of time capsules frozen in the 1970s in Turkey’s intellectual landscape, an increasing number are becoming today’s liberals with modified paradigms though strongly shaped by memories of the past. Slowly, we are seeing emerging cosmopolitan intellectuals, who can be committed Muslims or staunch atheists or Kurds or Armenians, who are talking of a plural Turkey that cherishes diversity and where equal citizenship based on individual rights is the main vision, not some macro-political narrative.

Political parties that did not realize these deep changes all died out one by one as the AK Party won one victory over another. In fact, even the strongest citadel of modernity, the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK), has had to come to terms with the new Turkey, albeit slowly and painfully. No surprise then, a leading general who delivered a key speech at the height of the AK Party versus the military match declared “postmodernists,” who did not see a strict nation-state vision as a precursor for being a nation, as a new national threat.

The AK Party saw and seized the changes by providing everything that postmodernity demanded: economic growth to sustain and increase consumerism, pragmatism with a moral language but beyond zero-sum idealism, affirmations of cultural authenticity along side allowing multiple identities, accountability and quality service from state structures, and most importantly a sense that we are a “cool” country.

Just as Turkey managed to formulate a unique blend of modernist ideas and appropriated them to suit itself, such as laïcité, Turkey is now adjusting into its own forms of postmodernity. Some of these developments are vital for Turkey to survive in the 21st century. Yet, experiences of Europe and North America show that postmodernity also has a deep dark side.


The world according to Bashar al-Assad





Published by Today's Zaman, 25 November 2011


Over the last few weeks, I was able to listen to a number of people who recently visited Syria and met and talked with Bashar al-Assad himself.

With such fresh personal insights into what’s inside his mind and what we have seen from his public statements of late, we are able to put together a picture of how he sees what’s happening around him.
It is clear that Assad is still confident of his stand and does not see an end to his regime. Firstly, he thinks that the White House is fooling American citizens by making public declarations of freezing his and his family’s assets in the US, but not actually pressuring Syria. Assad points out that he has no assets whatsoever in the US and President Barack Obama knows that too. He sees a US unwilling to unsettle his rule and dependent on other countries, such as Turkey. Secondly, he thinks that Israel wants him in office and that they will never back any strong campaign against him, let alone one that could lead to a crumbling Syria ruled by Islamists.

Thirdly, Assad thinks that Turkey’s pressure on him is limited and that the strong reactions shown by the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government are only for the public. He does not think there is anything else Turkey can do from now on. He believes that the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) still hold the main power in the country and will never allow “Islamists” to take Turkey to war. Given that Syrian and Turkish rapprochement began with military relations, Assad still holds positive feelings towards the TSK. He believes that he has enough to work on with Kurds to create indirect pressure on Turkey.

Fourthly, Assad continues to hold deep mistrust towards powerful Arab countries in the region. He sees Egypt as not being a true Middle Eastern country, but a North African one. Egypt, for him, only makes noise but has no actual power or influence in the region. He sees the Gulf countries as villains. He believes that all of the booming countries, such as the UAE, Qatar and even Saudi Arabia, are doomed to collapse and fail when the petrol money runs out as they are not “real” nations. He sees Saudi Arabia as a major threat with its never ending funding of radical groups. He believes Qatar to be too ambitious but lacking any substance. Jordan, accordingly, is a small puppet kingdom for the US.

US, EU and Arab countries untrustworthy

The fall out between the majority of Arab countries and Syria during the Iraq-Iran war, and the Syrian-Iranian relations that drew closer in that process, continue to shape Assad’s thinking. He knows that the US, EU and Arab countries want him to draw closer to their bloc, and away from Iran, but finds the proposed partners untrustworthy. His lifelines, Iran and influence over Lebanon, seem to be strong and entrenched. Thus, threats from the Arab League do not faze him.

Beyond what we see in the international media and our emotive anticipations over another Arab Spring revolution, Assad still has important levels of domestic support. The fears of radical Sunni groups not only dominating the country, but enforcing Islam on the masses, is common even among conservative Sunni Muslims, not least among the Alewites and liberals. The substantial Christian community in the country is sleepless with fear of a possible post-Assad Syria. He now publicly acknowledges that mistakes were made towards Kurds. He seems set to ensure that Kurds who were previously denied citizenship are now granted it and that they come to see themselves as Syrians.

His underlying political discourse still speaks of some sort of Pan-Arab idealism, not Syrian nationalism. He speaks of Arab unity and power, and yet what he means by that remains elusive. Just like his father, he tries to evoke Arab nationalism across the Arab world and fails to achieve it. He is acutely aware that his Arab unity discourse is pretty much limited to Lebanon and Syria and he is actually talking about Syrian influence and power, led by his family. However, his primary concern and warnings that Syria will be overtaken by Islamists echo a significant portion of his countrymen and fellow Arabs in other countries as well as worried eyes in Europe and North America. He still has a winning argument built on these fears to legitimize his brutal crackdown on “rebels.”

Assad is not wrong in some of his readings of his neighborhood. He is masterfully aware of the fears of the majority of Syrians, most of who want the turbulent days to end so that they can go back to their normal lives and feel safe again. The “uprising” in Syria does not seem to have reached the critical mass needed to topple the Assad regime, and the armed forces and intelligence services remain faithful and in tact. Regional dynamics still maintain support for Syria, as well as the animosities that Syria has learned to live with and navigate through for the last 20 years. The chaotic Syrian opposition is not in a place to challenge and replace him in the near future. In fact, some of their protests and signs of militant attacks are not welcomed widely. In other words, there is no immediate major change on the horizon, at least not yet.

The true test of democracy in the Middle East

Published by Today's Zaman, 1 November 2011

As the sociopolitical changes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) continue to dazzle and excite, analysts are trying to decode what the word “democracy” means for the new actors in the region and how the democratization process may or may not unfold.

Unlike popular perceptions, the measure of things to come is not whether fair and free elections are held, but whether or not religious freedom will be upheld.

A Western ambassador once told me with great excitement that Saudi Arabia was undertaking slow but major reforms to improve its legal system. There were improvements in all human rights concerns. When I asked him about religious freedom issues, he said that would never change. He spoke of how he had urged a leading prince to allow a church to open in the country. The prince replied, “Just as there are no mosques in the Vatican, there can never be a church in Saudi Arabia, the holy land of Islam.”
The states in the region see regulation of religion as an important aspect of forming national narratives and maintaining power. Thus, even Muslims who do not fit into the officially endorsed versions of Islam are denied their rights to live freely according to their own beliefs. Non-Muslims from traditional ethnic communities are often allowed to dwell in their ghettos, granted they do not demand equal rights or opportunities.

Even that limited understanding of tolerance disappears when Muslims leave Islam for another religion. While the United Arab Emirates publishes yearly a proud official list of people converting to Islam and the al-Azhar University in Egypt ensures that new converts to Islam change their ID cards and civil registration within 24 hours, the reverse is not possible. Those who leave Islam face life-threatening conditions, both from their governments and their own communities.

When I conducted field research across the region for the writing of the report “No Place to Call Home: Experiences of Apostates from Islam and Failures of the International Community,” I saw with my own eyes the brutal reality of how even the most liberal Muslim voices can react to news of a Muslim leaving Islam. Ironically, the same voices would urge me to continue promoting religious freedom so that they can be free to live as they want to without ever realizing that either all human beings have a right to freedom of religion, belief, conscience and thought, or none of us do.

 Will things change as the democracy fever spreads across the region? Sadly, I do not think so. The democratic transition pretty much meant the end of Christianity in Iraq. Christian communities were forced out of their historical dwellings by Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds alike. Since they had no militias and were seen as American proxies, they were easy prey for terrorist groups. The Iraq experience proved that fair and free elections and elected governments do not mean that every human being will be treated equally, protected and given a voice over the future of their country.

While discourses on democracy and human rights float lavishly in MENA today, the brutal handling of Coptic protests in Cairo by the Egyptian army and numerous attacks on Coptic Christians and Sufi Muslims in Egypt since January point to serious discrepancies. Even among “liberal” and democracy-promoting, conservative circles and media, the victims were declared the inciters, and rather than addressing the problems, the blame was once again laid on “foreign powers.”

The fact is Christianity is slowly but clearly disappearing across MENA. With the exception of Lebanon, even sizable Christian communities -- such as the 10-million strong Copts of Egypt -- live as excluded, second-class citizens. Most Muslims, Europeans and Americans seem shocked to hear that Christianity is actually a Middle Eastern religion and belongs to these lands.

The same fate awaits other communities, too. With the exception of Turkey, the chances of meeting a Jew anywhere in the Middle East and North Africa are as slim as meeting a famous rock star. Followers of Bahaism, which originated in Iran, suffer serious abuse and are denied almost every socioeconomic right across the region. Yet, no emerging Arab democrats -- even the most liberal ones -- talk about the fate of the millions of marginalized people among them. For now, democracy in MENA seems to be in its most naked and simple form: the rule of the majority for the majority’s interests.

So, if you want to take measure of how close MENA is getting to the ideals of democracy and human rights, look at where religious freedom in its countries is heading. Simply put, the extent to which a country grants religious freedom is the extent to which all other rights will be protected and democracy will mature and be sincere.