Turkey’s EU bid no longer ‘non-negotiable’

Interview by Xi Chen, Hurriyet Daily News, 3 October 2010

Turkey is in search of an era of new politics in international relations and might even withdraw its European Union bid in the next three to five years if membership remains ungranted, a London-based Turkish researcher has said.

In a report named “The Prospects for Turkey” published last month by the Legatum Institute, Ziya Meral outlines the changes that Turkey has been going through since the late 1990s both in domestic and foreign politics. He describes these changes as a “metamorphosis” for the nation.

The report concludes that this turbulent process of change is key to further development of democracy in Turkey and to “Turkish adaptation to the realities of the 21st century.”

In domestic politics, Meral argues that there are two sets of problems facing Turkey: “actual problems,” such as the Kurdish issue, and ”engineered problems,” such as the ideological battle between political parties that polarize the society along the lines of secular versus religious.

According to Meral, the rise of the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, eight years ago was precisely because the party could represent the “common reality” of Turkey, enforcing pro-market, pro-EU policies while remaining socially conservative.

“The AKP has unleashed the changes but it has not achieved its objectives,” Meral told the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review. He said he believes an era of new politics is needed in Turkey as “politicians need to be creative and re-imagine themselves under the new reality rather than falling back into the old discourse.”

Moving toward independence

In a maturing democracy, “votes could no longer be taken for granted in a society that showed an increasing pattern of non-ideological and rational voting for parties which can offer solutions,” the report said.

In the global arena, Meral foresees Turkey being a more “independent actor.” He argues that the government, after the 2011 general elections, will likely “switch” its EU policy, as “Turks increasingly feel humiliated by the prolonged process.”

“The EU is a political vision and Turkey will be a key in it. However, the same EU has grown into a giant bureaucratic machine with a lot of problems. In the end, what does the EU have to offer to Turkey?” Meral asked. He said he believes EU membership is no longer “non-negotiable” in the Turkish policy agenda.

The Legatum report concludes that “a proactive Turkey with a pragmatic foreign policy seeking to expand its economic and diplomatic ties in the Balkans, the Middle East and Central Asia has so much to offer not only to an unstable region but also for the U.S. and EU.”

New Essay; Decoding Turkish Foreign Policy Hyperactivity






The Washington Quarterly- October 2010, Volume 33, Number 4
Ziya Meral & Jonathan Paris


Ever since the Justice and Development Party (AKP) initially assumed power in 2002, soon after the September 11, 2001 attacks, international media has devoted more attention to developments in Turkey. For domestic observers, the conservative Muslim AKP’s emergence and subsequent landslide victory in 2007 evoked fears about eroding secularism in the country. For foreign observers, as the threat of militant Islamism became the lens through which to view events in the Muslim world, the AKP’s electoral victories stoked worries about theWest ‘‘losing’’ Turkey. Although the AKP’s record-breaking eight years in office have cooled much of the hysteria about Turkey’s domestic orientation, recent Turkish foreign policy activity has unleashed a brand new wave of handwringing about Ankara.

Much of the commentary on the country, however, is littered with a lack of understanding of Turkey’s domestic context or of the surrounding environment from Ankara’s perspective. Many pundits ask the wrong questions, which lead to the wrong conclusions. The main question is not whether Turkey is giving up ties with the United States and the EU in exchange for closer ties with questionable countries, like Iran and Syria, and non-state actors in the Islamic world. Instead, for a variety of historical and contemporary geopolitical reasons, Turkey has pursued a more proactive engagement policy since the early 2000s in both regional and global affairs, seeking greater influence in the Middle East and consequently gaining a respected place at the high table of leading countries in the world. The key question is: has this fresh Turkish zeal led Ankara to miscalculate its influence, punch above its weight, and risk greater losses to Turkey’s potential stabilizing role and its interests?

Download the full essay here.

Public Talks in September-December 2010

September 20: I will be presenting a summary of current challenges Turkey is facing, along with a presention by Robert O'Daly from the Economist Intelligence Unit to mark the release of my new report Prospects for Turkey at the Legatum Institute, London.

November 20: I will be presenting a paper on minority politics in Muslim-majority states at "State Reactions to New Religions Seminar" at the London School of Economics.

New Report: Prospects for Turkey

On September 20, Legatum Institute will release a new report I have written on the susbtantial socio-political changes in Turkey and Turkish foreign policy.

The key findings of this report include:

• More than any other political party in Turkey, the AKP represents the reality of Turkey - a country that wants to be an independent global actor with a flourishing democracy and economy, while also striving to maintain its values and culture.

• Eight years of AKP rule have not Islamised Turkey. The AKP has turned out to be one of the most pro-EU, pro-market economy, pro-human rights, and pro-democracy governments Turkey has ever had.

• The AKP’s strong performance on economic and political issues has been tainted by intense clashes within the state structures and with opposition parties, and limited by the party’s own failures in fulfilling its promises and handling opposition.

• Far from an inevitable point of contention, a proactive Turkey with a pragmatic foreign policy seeking to expand its economic and diplomatic ties in the Balkans, the Middle East, and Central Asia has so much to offer not only to an unstable region but also for the US and EU.

• The outcome of the national elections in the summer of 2011, a possible large-scale Kurdish intifada, and potential fallout with key Western and Middle eastern countries due to Turkish engagement with previously shunned states, are key challenges awaiting it.

• Turkey needs close support from the US and the EU to enable a stable maturation, just as the US and the EU need to keep Turkey as a close ally for their own economic and political interests.

A print copy of the report can be obtained from Legatum Institute and a PDF version can be downloaded here .

Turkey and Israel: souring international relations

Published by Channel 4 News Website, 03 June


Ever since Prime Minister Erdogan stormed off the stage at the World Economic Forum in January 2009 following remarks by Israeli President Shimon Peres, it was clear that Turkish and Israeli relations were entering a turbulent phase.

The rift continued to deepen when Israel refused to allow Turkish Foreign Minister Davutoglu to visit the Gaza strip on an official visit to Israel in September 2009.

In retaliation, Turkey cancelled Israel's participation at a joint international air exercise in October 2009. In January 2010, the diplomatic tensions rocketed when the Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Daniel Ayalon summoned the Turkish ambassador to protest against an anti-Semitic episode of a popular Turkish television drama.

In a bizarre populist show of superiority, Ayalon sought to insult the Turkish ambassador by placing him on a lower chair and by urging the media to report the lower seating of the ambassador.

Verbal duels between the Netanyahu and Erdogan administrations gave way to subtle signals through cutbacks on defence trade between the two countries, something that has been a major aspect of Turkish Israeli relations.

Since 1990s, Turkey and Israel had enjoyed quiet cooperation on joint military exercises, modernisation of military equipment, intelligence sharing and arms trade in addition to investments in civilian enterprises.

Until last Sunday, there were still strong reasons to believe that Israel and Turkey will continue to enjoy these quiet exchanges but with caution and some downsizing. Things look pretty different now.

Last Sunday's events could have been prevented and Israel could have been saved from a major international public condemnation if it had not chosen to stop the vessels carrying aid to Gaza with a theatrical military operation.

Although the details of exactly what happened is far from clear, the end result is the death of at least nine activists and equal numbers of wounded Israeli soldiers. Israel is still seeking to win a moral and political higher ground by arguing that the flotilla posed a security threat to Israel, if not the entire region, by "supporting" Hamas and other terrorists.

The response of the Turkish government has been extremely strong, yet calculated and carefully ambiguous thus far. Public threats of a major overhaul of Turkish Israeli relations have only been followed by immense efforts at the UN, EU and US levels to force Israel to accept culpability.

However, with the Israeli government continuing to take a hard stance, the statements by various Turkish politicians that things will never be the same again will probably come true. Israel may have just lost its only Muslim ally, and one which is an increasingly ambitious and powerful force in the Middle East.

Public Talks in June and July 2010

June 14-18: I will be giving a lecture on minority rights with the title "Nation Making and Minority Politics; the case of Turkey" at the Minority Rights, Indigenous People and Human Rights Law Summer School, Irish Centre for Human Rights, National University of Ireland, Galway- Ireland

July 25-30: I will be attending and giving a lecture on the socio-political context of religious conversion in Muslim-majority states at the Islam and Religious Freedom Seminar , Whiterspoon Institute, Princeton- USA

The Metamorphosis of Turkey





Published by Public Service, 29 March

My dictionary defines metamorphosis as "the process of transformation from an immature form to an adult form in two or more distinct stages." Clearly, the process spoken here is a biological one and using such a language to analyse a country is laden with problems. However, the word metamorphosis is the best metaphor I could find thus far to describe what Turkey is going through.

In some levels, it is clear that Turkey is still aspiring to be a EU member and most Turks see themselves as Europeans. Yet, at the same time Turkey has invited Sudan's notorious Omal al-Bashir to the country with red carpets, publicly backed Ahmedinejad's election 'victory' and engaged with all the shunned countries and groups like Hamas and Syria and alienated its traditional allies such as Israel with angry outbursts. Where is Turkey heading? To the East or the West? Is the traditional friend of the EU, NATO and US turning out to be a foe?

The domestic scene is equally confusing. Not a week passes before a new scandal breaks out. Top generals are being arrested and questioned for alleged attempts to take over the country. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Erdogan publicly ostracises critical media outlets and forces hefty tax punishments on unsupportive corporations. A brand new elite is ruling Turkey, but where is Turkey heading? Is it turning out to be an Islamist country on a fast-track course to instability and civil unrest?

All of these are genuine worries and questions, some more valid than others. It is true that Turkish foreign policy as well as domestic politics and structures are undergoing substantial changes, but a closer look reveals a more promising picture.
With the appointment of the foreign minister Davutoglu, the AKP government has faced the reality that the world has changed and if Turkey was to survive these turbulent days it had to adopt itself to a new era. Davutoglu has promoted a 'zero conflict' in all of Turkey's borders and a diversification and deepening of Turkish relations with other countries.

This was inevitable. Turkey has increasingly lost confidence in the EU project because different EU states and bodies continued to communicate mixed messages on the future of Turkey and EU talks. Meanwhile, Russian-Georgian conflict throughout 2008/2009 and Russian-EU tensions over energy convinced Turkey to leave aside its traditional foreign policy stagnation.

Thus, Turkey took unprecedented attempts to emerge as a negotiator in the Middle East, to solve never-ending problems with Armenia-Azerbaijan and Cyprus, and to become a neutral energy route for the lucrative petrol and gas resources in its neighbourhood. In other words, Turkey is becoming less 'ideological' in its relations but more 'rational' with a multi-faceted calculation of its own interests.

The pragmatic shift is also true for domestic political and social changes. The reason why AKP assumed a majority power in 2002 as a brand new party was that Turks were fed up with the traditional political elites of the country. AKP generated record-breaking votes ever since, even from non-Muslims and liberals, because it has been the most pro-EU, pro-reform, pro-human rights, pro-democracy and pro-foreign investment government Turkey has had in this generation. Yet, the results of the 2009 local elections and current estimates, which forecast AKP's votes to be around 33 per cent for the 2011 national elections, show that whenever AKP has stopped its democratic reforms and EU commitment and lapsed into autocratic attitudes, it has lost votes.

This reflects the reality of Turkey – a forward looking yet traditionally conservative society that wants to be in the EU, yet at the same time feels the need to diversify its relations and investments; a friendly ally who wants to be close to the West, yet at the same time wants to be an independent global actor on its own merits and terms and does not want to be bullied.

Such a Turkey is far from being a foe but of further value for the EU, US and NATO. In a chaotic region like the Middle East, a vibrant democracy with a liberal economy and pragmatic foreign policy is only good news. Turkish presence in Afghanistan and Iraq has played a quiet but significant stabilising role. In the years to come, a Turkey that speaks to all of her neighbours will be key for US and EU foreign policy, with Turkish support on actions towards Iran and co-operation on alternative energy routes with European countries sine qua non.

Although publicly Turkey was criticised for talking to Hamas, re-engaging with Syria and seeking to develop economic relations with Iran, it is now a common attitude that isolating Hamas does not work. The US is currently upgrading its diplomatic presence in Syria, and France is way more ahead than Turkey in having its slices of the Iranian market.

Yet, one must not be naïve. The maturation process of Turkish democracy is no guarantee that it will turn out to be constructive and that Turkish interests will align themselves with those of Europe and the US in each and every turn. Change is a precarious process. That is why Turkey needs close support from the EU more than ever, if the EU is still aspiring for stability in Europe and its neighbourhood and productive engagement with the rest of the world.

Kohelet, my play returns to stage in Istanbul


I am thrilled to announce that Kohelet starts its second season in Istanbul at the Caddebostan Kultur Merkezi from October 9 and onwards. Last theatre season, the play had attracted nation wide media attention and warm feedback from the audiences.

The play tells the story of a Turkish professor, Ahmet, and his wife, Sevgi. Ahmet is a US educated, well respected academic who lectures literature in Istanbul. He has a television show and a daily column at a newspaper, and is a best selling author. However, after a tragic loss, Ahmet questions the value of all that he has achieved and learned in life. While researching for his new book, he stumbles across Ecclesiastes (Kohelet in Hebrew) in the Bible and duly agrees; meaningless, everything is utterly meaningless!

Ahmet's wife too silently mourns the seeming loss of the couple's love for each other, as Sevgi is convinced that Ahmet is having an affair with a research student. A mundane visit to their house by Sevgi's new friend Sirin and her businessman husband Alp pushes the couple to a breaking point. When the news arrive that the research student has committed suicide, the past and the present, fears and jealousies and whatever was kept hidden comes out of their closets. Although it eventually becomes clear that the student has survived the suicide attempt and that it has nothing to do with Ahmet, the events of the night usher the couple to a journey of questioning and rediscovering the value of their love.